76% excess mortality in Hungary in the worst week of March compared to 2019
The KSH revised its death statistics for the second time through week 15 (April 12-18), so it’s time to take a closer look. It has data up to week 17th (April 26 – May 2), which shows a 27.6% excess mortality compared to 2020 (see more on this in the revisions section at the bottom).
Until we have at least one revision (it’s still up) for the first 17 weeks, we focus on the period that has been revised at least twice.
However, as before, here’s a little something about excess mortality in March (weeks 10-13) and until mid-April (weeks 10-15).
Before we move on … In the articles below you will find three charts that give you a better or at least an alternative ‘tool’ to see how successfully Hungary has handled the coronavirus pandemic.
To move on.
The upper part of the following tables (green header) shows data for separate weeks: the number of deaths in 2021; the weekly deviations over 2020, 2019 and the 2015-19 average; and the ratios of the differences where the annual difference (for 2020, 2019 and 2015-19) is divided by the total weekly deaths in the given (base) year, not 2021 (it would not have made sense to compare 2021 to 2016). -2020 because last year’s data would cause some distortion due to the coronavirus pandemic. Hence the comparison with 2015-19.)
The lower section (blue header) shows the cumulative numbers, i.e. the second week shows deaths for the second AND the first week, the third for the 3rd, 2nd and 1st, etc. .
The excess mortality for weeks 12 and 13 was 55 and 63% compared to the same weeks of 2020, 76% and 75% compared to the same weeks of 2019 and 63 to 65% compared to the 2015-2019 average of same weeks. The statistics office has already revised the data four times up to the 13th week.
Excess mortality in the first 15 weeks reached 28.6% over the same period of 2020.
The following tables show the revisions through week 15 between May 12 and May 28. (A more detailed table of the four revisions for the first 13 weeks can be found at the bottom, but note that the total revisions for weeks 1 through 13 reached 1269 or 2.98% between April 27 and May 28.)
Here’s a more concise version of the tables above with a few more graphics to get you started.
Preliminary data for the first 17 weeks of 2021 (with four revisions for week 13, three revisions for week 14, two revisions for week 15, and one revisions for week 16) shows 27.6% excess mortality in 2020.
Here’s a better visualization of changes in excess mortality in a weekly breakdown through week 15 of 2021.
And, as promised, a breakdown of the four revisions for the first 13 weeks. All data should be revised upwards, but the real nasty numbers should be expected in April.
Cover photo: Getty Images