Central and Eastern European region survives first shock of war in Ukraine

Despite the war in Ukraine, inflation uncertainty, rising construction costs and rapidly changing interest rates, the real estate market has nevertheless shown resilience, with several large transactions in the first quarter 2022, says Cushman & Wakefield.
EPP’s acquisition of the M1 retail portfolio and flagship transactions such as the Warsaw hub in Poland contributed to high volumes in the first quarter – usually a low point of the year.
The war in Ukraine delayed some transactions, which led to an overall drop in volumes. Despite this interrupted momentum, which has continued since the first quarter, we are seeing a return to retail liquidity – a trend that is likely to continue. Commercial real estate investment transaction activity is expected to remain sluggish in the second quarter with a sluggish market. The agreements reached are in the process of being finalized, but they are considered “fragile” in light of the regional economic slowdown, inflation and uncertainty. The fragility of the CEEC real estate investment market is most acute in the sector most dependent on rental growth – industry. As rental growth continues over the coming months, we expect pent-up capital to be more easily deployed. This should boost business in the region, especially in the industrial sector
Jeff Alson MRICS, International Partner and Head of CEE Capital Markets at Cushman & Wakefield
In Poland, the total value of transactions concluded in the first three months of 2022 was 1.6 billion euros, of which 56% was in the office sector. The first quarter recorded the highest transaction volume in the office sector since the end of 2019. This is the result of the largest single project acquisition in the history of Poland – the acquisition by Google office development The Warsaw Hub for 583 million euros. The Czech real estate market is still defined by the limited number of properties available for sale. This leads to limited overall activity at present. There is no apparent clear direction in the market, although industrial properties are the most popular. In Hungary, 2022 got off to a strong start with deals such as the Akademia Business Center in Budapest leading the way. As the war in Ukraine heightened investor caution, deals continued to close – including Adventum Group‘s acquisition of cross-border portfolio Tesco and OBI. In Slovakia, several transactions are underway in all asset classes, the majority of which should be finalized this year. This fact demonstrates strong demand among investors after two years of uncertainty related to COVID-19. Although pandemic-related restrictions have already been lifted and businesses are now operating without any restrictions, the continued war in Ukraine and its implications could harm investment activity. In Romania, the local investment market has already absorbed the initial shock of the war in Ukraine, as investors remain convinced that the fundamentals of the local market are solid. The office segment remains the most active and the decision to lift Covid-19 restrictions has boosted appetite for retail and hospitality assets.