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Home›Hungary banks›Coordinating in the Dark on Inflation by Kaushik Basu

Coordinating in the Dark on Inflation by Kaushik Basu

By Arthur Holmes
April 29, 2022
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The fine management of soaring inflation that is currently being attempted is one area where the economy is weakest. Better global coordination of monetary policy is essential – and, as the world’s largest economy, the United States will have to bear a disproportionate share of the responsibility in this effort.

ITHACA – Inflation has suddenly become a major problem in virtually every country. What is unusual this time around is that advanced economies are in the lead, with annual consumer price inflation currently 8.5% in the USA, 7.5% in the euro area, and 7% UK. Among emerging markets and developing countries, traditionally more resilient Asian economies are also seeing high inflation, with price growth in India, Bangladesh and South Korea reaching 7%, 6.2%and 4.1%respectively, in March.

In a few cases, skyrocketing inflation has country-specific causes. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is trying to lead the central bank. In Sri Lanka, poor management of foreign exchange reserves and agricultural policy blame.

In general, however, inflation is one of the least understood phenomena in economics. We have enough knowledge to prevent major hyperinflationary episodes like those seen in the past, such as the record cases of Germany in 1923 and Hungary in 1946and in some parts of Latin America and Africa in more recent times.

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