Estimation of the volume of residential real estate transactions and mortgage forecasts for

October 2021

Duna House presents below its monthly estimate of the number of transactions (DH-TE) and its mortgage forecast, showing that in October 2021, 11,526 real estate transactions were concluded and residential mortgage contracts worth 107 billion HUF were signed across Hungary.

The early fall recovery was followed by a slight decline in the housing market in October. According to Duna House estimates, 11,526 deals were closed in October 2021, which could be behind the same periods in previous years, but still speaks of a 3% increase over the summer months of This year. Since the start of the year, the increase has been 17% compared to 2020 and about the same as in 2019, the last year before the Covid19 pandemic. Assuming market activity continues at the same levels, Duna House expects a total annual transaction volume of over 150,000 for 2021.

That said, residential mortgage volume has fallen back to levels last seen in May of this year. According to estimates published by Duna House Finances, mortgage contracts worth HUF 107 billion were signed in October. Although this is slightly lower than the record numbers of recent months, he still forecasts total volume 31% higher than the same period last year. It also means that the market has continued to exceed the limit of HUF 100 billion each month since March and could break new records by the end of 2021, supported by the backlash of market opportunities offered by new green loans.

Budapest, November 2, 2021

Background information

The table below shows Duna House’s monthly trading volume estimates.

Methodology behind DH-TE: Regardless of the time of year, the most important indicator of the real estate market is the annual number of sales transactions. The DH-TE figure is an estimate published by Duna House and it reflects provisional approximate data. The estimate is based on the number of monthly real estate transactions negotiated by Duna House and the estimated market share of Duna House. The estimate of the current monthly market share of Duna House is based on the following indicators: 1. Data published by the Hungarian Central Office for Statistics on transactions between individuals. Since the Statistical Office publishes the data several months late, the market share can be adjusted retroactively, which also allows a more precise estimate. Note: After 2016 and following the boom in new apartments, pre-contracted purchase transactions appear in the statistics of the Statistical Office with a delay of several months or even one or two years, after the transfer tax has been collected, which causes anomalies in the statistics. 2. The number of energy certificates issued; 3. Subjective assessment based on other management information from Duna House Holding.

Please also note that DH-TE data cannot be used to define the volume of transactions traded by Duna House, or to estimate the trading profit of Duna House Holding or to draw related conclusions.

Mortgage Forecasts: Figures released by Duna House Loan Center can primarily be used for quick trend forecasts; the National Bank of Hungary publishes the actual figures for the penultimate month at the beginning of each month.

Disclaimer

House Duna holding Nyrt. published this content on 05 November 2021 and is solely responsible for the information it contains. Distributed by Public, unedited and unmodified, on 05 November 2021 13:47:01 UTC.