Over 30,000 Hungarians Have Died From Coronavirus – What About Excess Mortality?
New cases of COVID-19, severe cases, all kinds of exciting / alarming ratios
In the past 24 hours, Hungarian authorities have diagnosed 55 people infected with the coronavirus and 5 COVID-19 patients have died, bringing the death toll to 30,004. The number of new daily cases has not been so high since two weeks.
An extremely low share (0.2%) of active cases are hospitalized, but an increasing percentage of them require mechanical ventilation. The 7-day average of the ratio of people on ventilators to the total number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals is up almost 22%.
Here are two more charts showing the same changes. Both are for a three week period until July 7th. The one on the left shows the number of people infected with the coronavirus in hospital and on a ventilator, as well as their 3-day averages, which continue to decline. The graph on the left shows the same ratio as the one above, just not a 7-day average but the daily readings and their 3-day averages. It shows that the ratio of those on Covid patients on ventilators to the number of those in hospital jumped to 24%, then corrected to around 18%. The 3-day average has also fallen but remains around 21%.
The calculations used for the following charts are based on Averages over 7 days.
The first graph shows the ratios of the 7-day averages: [the 7-day average of a given day – 7-day average of the previous day] / Average over 7 days of the previous day.
What we are seeing is that the decline in the number of assets has been gradually decreasing for about two weeks to reach around 0.5% at present, while the trend in the number of hospitalized Covid patients shows a rate in drop.
The following graphic shows the change ratios (curves) you see above. The blue line: orange / green, i.e. variation in the number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized by variation of active cases (with averages over 7 days). Red line: blue / orange (on ventilator, 7-day average) / in hospital (7-day average). Wherever ratios are greater than 100%, the numerator is greater than the denominator, that is, the rate at which they discharge Covid patients from hospitals (including those who are reported as cured by general practitioners ) is greater than the rate at which the number of active cases is declining. This means that an increasingly smaller percentage of active cases are hospitalized. The red line fell below 100% on June 27 and has remained there ever since, bottoming at 8.4% on July 5.
Alarming change in the positivity of tests
The change in test positivity is also of concern.
The 3/21 day test positivity average increased from around 93% to 129.61%, and the jump did not occur even earlier due to an extremely low reading. However, the positivity rate was already close to 1% yesterday (0.95%), and the 21-day average is 0.67%. The latter will go even lower, which means we can say goodbye to improving the positivity rate for a while.
The number of tests remains extremely low (5,765) and only 55 came back positive yesterday. Let’s put that in perspective!
The last time around 5,000 tests gave a positivity rate of 0.95% was August 20, 2020 (5,245 tests, 52 positive). More than 55 new cases were registered on August 25 (73 new cases). Two days ago, authorities reported 21 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 that we could compare to August 5 (33 cases). It took just two days this time to achieve a similar increase in the number of new cases Hungary had over a two-week period in August last year. The 3 day / 21 day ratio should stay north of 100% for some time.
And the same figures in the longer term, between March 1 and July 7:
60% excess mortality compared to 2019 in April 2021
The spotlight remains on March and April 2021, as the peak of the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the first 20 weeks of the year, as the statistics office has already revised the data three times until the 20th week.
As you can see in the tables below, excess mortality was around 47% in March in both 2020 (47.7%) and 2019 (46.9), while the figures for April were turned out to be increasingly bad (as expected). The excess mortality over the 28 days between March 29 and April 25 was 60.2% over the same period of 2019, and nearly 50% in 2020. In March-April of this year, nearly 49% of people are died in Hungary compared to the same two months. of 2020 (+ 48.7%) and 2019 (+ 53.1%).
The excess mortality in the first 21 weeks was nearly 24%, according to KSH data (see more detailed tables and charts below).
The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) continues to spread at an increasing rate around the world, while the vaccination campaign in Hungary, with a population of around 9.8 million, has fizzled out. about 5.5 million people vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 with at least one dose.
Excess mortality in the first 20 weeks
The upper part of the following tables (green header) presents data for separate weeks: the number of deaths in 2021; the weekly deviations over 2020, 2019 and the 2015-19 average; and the ratios of the differences where the annual difference (for 2020, 2019 and 2015-19) is divided by the total number of weekly deaths in the given (base) year, not 2021. (It would have made no sense compare 2021 to 2016-2020 because last year’s data would cause significant distortion due to the coronavirus pandemic. Hence the comparison with 2015-19.)
The lower section (blue header) shows the cumulative numbers, i.e. the second week shows the deaths for the second AND the first week, the third for the 3rd, 2nd and 1st, etc. .
The excess mortality for weeks 12 and 13 was 62.5% and nearly 74 %% compared to the same weeks in 2020, over 84% and 87% compared to the same weeks in 2019 and 73-74% compared to the 2015-2019 average of the same weeks. The statistics office revised the data up to the 20th week on three occasions. (In fact, the data was revised 10 times for the 13th week, 9 times for the 14th week, 8 times for the 15th, etc.)
Excess mortality in the first 20 weeks (up to May 23) reached 27.4% over the same period of 2020 and 24.8% in the first 23 weeks.
The following tables show the revisions through week 20 between June 16 and July 7. As you can see, serious revisions go on for weeks in March and April, mostly in April (13-15).
Here’s a more concise version of the tables above with a few more graphics to get you started. (Click to enlarge.)
The largest revisions between June 16 and July 7 affected the latest numbers (weeks 20, 19, 18), but significant adjustments were also made for April (weeks 14, 15, 16).
Black March and April
The excess mortality data for weeks 9 to 16, from March 1 to April 25, shows that the period between mid-March and mid-April was the deadliest compared to the same weeks of 2020, 2019 and the 2015 average. -19. This is also indicated on a graph.
THE SURMORTALITY BETWEEN MARCH 1 AND APRIL 25, 2021 WAS 48.7% IN 2020, 53.1% IN 2019 AND 48.1% ON THE 2015-19 AVERAGE.
Over this period, nearly 31,192 people died in 2021, against cc. 21,000 last year, 20,370 in 2019 and 21,000 on average between 2015 and 2019.
Cover photo: Getty Images