A plausible scenario places the site on the Ukrainian border from which Russian troops could launch an incursion. But the risks for Russian President Vladimir Putin are considerable – and the West’s goals should be to make them prohibitive.

BRATISLAVA – “Everyone goes to Valuyki.” This sentence, capture on social media, provided perhaps the biggest clue as to where Russian armed forces could hit Ukraine if Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed the 130,000 troops it massed along the border.

Draw a straight line from Valuyki, strategically located north of the breakaway Russian-backed Donbass region and east of Kharkiv, to the major city of Dnipro on the Dnieper River. This is about 300 kilometers, the shortest possible distance to the formidable natural defense that the river offers. Control of this line would allow Russia to cut off all of southern and eastern Ukraine, completely encircle the Ukrainian armed forces currently facing the Donbass, and quickly force them to surrender.

The immediate military rewards would be significant: complete control of the Sea of ​​Azov and secure defense of the land corridor to annexed Crimea, including fresh water flowing into the rain-starved peninsula. And if Ukrainian military resistance is surprisingly weak, Russia could expand its land grab beyond Odessa to the Moldovan border, completely cutting off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and crippling its maritime economy.